In 2004, I spent way too many hours obsessing over Electoral-Vote, an amalgamation of polling that kept me informed as to just how poorly John Kerry was doing. Except back then, I was desperately hoping that Kerry could overcome Bush in the weeks leading up to the 4th—he'd been behind by a slim margin, finally pulling ahead electorally on that site four years ago today. (For comparison, Kerry had 283 on October 31, 2004, while Obama has, well, somewhat more today.) Then the polls shifted. Was it because of a surprise Osama bin Laden message? I kind of doubt that...Kerry was not seen as weak, foreign-policy-wise, but rather just was not the kind of candidate who motivated GOTV in the same way as George Bush with his Evangelicals. The other side was voting for, we were voting against.

This year, I've all but forsaken Electoral-Vote (which is still worth a look!) in favor of FiveThirtyEight.com. Its founder and chief prognosticator, Nate Silver, is a true poll whisperer, and has talked his liberal following down (with respect to worry-wart Rachel Maddow) many a time. When McCain soared after his convention, it was just a bounce, Nate said—and he said it not because he fervently hoped so, but because he had the data and the historical research to back it up.

He's not afraid to deliver bad news, either, such as the fact that we're behind on defeating Proposition 8 in California and we're unlikely to hit 60 in the Senate.

I've haunted his site, which does not take a poll as the final word, but rather as the first word in what will wind up being either a flawed or a sound argument. He really knows how to shoot down faulty polls and how to interpret credible ones. I'm sure many of you already visit, but if not—do.