The Golden Globes are always fun as quasi-Oscar predictors, and because the Hollywood Foreign Press is unabashedly pro-star. They love giving nominations (and even awards) to big names not known for their acting chops, especially when those big names stretch ever so slightly. (Case in point: Madonna was nominated for and won a Globe, though went on not to even get an Oscar nomination.)

This is why someone like Julia Roberts gets nominated for something like Duplicity (um, exactly!) and why they adore giving wins to newcomers whose shows have made a big splash (remembering Keri Russell winning for Felicity, America Ferrera, etc.)

The year's biggest shock for me was the failure of Mariah Carey to get a nomination. She was never, ever Oscar-nomination-bound, not really, but the Globes seemed a possibility for her. Guess her international profile isn't as big as her profile. (This is a breast joke, not a fat joke, and as such is an expression of my civility toward a figure—in both senses—I dislike but whom did well in a movie that was my first or second fave of 2009.)

The complete list of Golden Globes nominations—my comments, if any, follow each category...

BEST MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA

• Avatar
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Precious
• Up in the Air

If the Oscars still had only five Best Pic contenders, these would be they. They really have the finger on the pulse this year. The only possible switch-out would have been Nine with Avatar, but I do think both will make Oscar's Top 10, as will Invictus, District 9, An Education, A Serious Man or even The Blind Side (I know...). I'd rather see A Single Man or Julie & Julia. I'm guessing the winner will be Up in the Air.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA

• Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
• Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
• Helen Mirren, The Last Station
• Carey Mulligan, An Education
• Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

Again, right on the money, but Meryl Streep's Julie & Julia will triumph over Helen Mirren or Emily Blunt. The win goes to Gabourey or to Sandra Bullock (for aforementioned Globe reasons.)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA

• Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
• George Clooney, Up in the Air
• Colin Firth, A Single Man
• Morgan Freeman, Invictus
• Tobey Maguire, Brothers

So pleased about Colin Firth! The others are pretty standard, but Tobey Maguire won't get an Oscar nom for that movie...I don't think? Clooney's got this sewn up.

BEST MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL

• (500) Days of Summer
• The Hangover
• It's Complicated
• Julie & Julia
• Nine

I'm seeing Nine ASAP, seeing It's Complicated on Thursday and loved Julie & Julia. The Hangover was offensive and stupid. I have yet to see (The Other One.) I imagine Nine will win.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL

• Sandra Bullock, The Proposal
• Marion Cotillard, Nine
• Julia Roberts, Duplicity
• Meryl Streep, It's Complicated
• Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

I guess they realllly wanted to be sure Streep showed up! Looks pretty unsurprising, overall. Has to be Streep.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL

• Matt Damon, The Informant!
• Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
• Robert Downey Jr., Sherlock Holmes
• Joseph Gordon-Levitt, (500) Days of Summer
• Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man

I think Matt Damon has a shot at winning this despite Day-Lewis's iconic status.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

• Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
• Coraline
• Fantastic Mr. Fox
• The Princess and the Frog
• Up

This is Up.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

• Baaria (Italy)
• Broken Embraces (Spain)
• The Maid (Chile)
• A Prophet (France)
• The White Ribbon (Germany)

I've only seen Broken Embraces, but I did like it a lot. I'll go with that.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

• Penélope Cruz, Nine
• Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
• Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
• Mo'Nique, Precious
• Julianne Moore, A Single Man

I'm glad to see Farmiga here; I liked Up in the Air (it is overrated) a lot, but have been annoyed Kendrick has outshone her in critical recognition when in reality she brought so, so much more to the film. Mo'Nique deserves to—and will—win.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

• Matt Damon, Invictus
• Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
• Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
• Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
• Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

I understand that people think it's Waltz all the way; I haven't seen that movie yet.

BEST DIRECTOR

• Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
• James Cameron, Avatar
• Clint Eastwood, Invictus
• Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
• Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Did Nine direct itself? Because Precious sure the fuck didn't. Why would Lee Daniels be the one to sacrifice a slot to give Clint Eastwood one when Eastwood's movie wasn't even good enough to be nominated? Really sucks ass. The openly gay directors got shut out (I guess I should research the others before saying that) and so did the black dude. But hey, he's no John Singleton. (Cough.)

BEST SCREENPLAY

• Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell, District 9
• Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
• Nancy Meyers, It's Complicated
• Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
• Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Up in the Air, probably, though this could also be a good way to give Tarantino something.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• Michael Giacchino, Up
• Marvin Hamlisch, The Informant!
• James Horner, Avatar
• Abel Korzeniowski, A Single Man
• Karen O and Carter Burwell, Where the Wild Things Are

I would pick Karen O and Carter Burwell. Come to think of it, I'd put Where the Wild Things Are in my Top 10.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• "Cinema Italiano," Music & Lyrics by Maury Yeston (Nine)
• "I Want to Come Home," Music & Lyrics by Paul McCartney (Everybody's Fine)
• "I Will See You," Music by James Horner, Simon Franglen; Lyrics by James Horner, Simon Franglen and Kuk Harrell (Avatar)
• "The Weary Kind," Music & Lyrics by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett (Crazy Heart)
• "Winter," Music by U2; Lyrics by Bono (Brothers)

I had thought the Mariah song or something from Precious was eligible? Guess not or they really went out of their way to snub those. I guess they will pick "Cinema Italiano" just to give Nine something.

BEST TELEVISION SERIES, DRAMA

• Big Love
• Dexter
• House
• Mad Men
• True Blood

True Blood probably loses to the beloved Mad Men, but it could win in the end—GGs love he latest, hottest shows.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES, DRAMA

• Glenn Close, Damages
• January Jones, Mad Men
• Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
• Anna Paquin, True Blood
• Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer

Who usually wins? Close? This time, I think Julianna gets it.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES, DRAMA

• Simon Baker, The Mentalist
• Michael C. Hall, Dexter
• Jon Hamm, Mad Men
• Hugh Laurie, House
• Bill Paxton, Big Love

Ugh, not a category I care about. Probably Hall this year over Hamm.

BEST TELEVISION SERIES, COMEDY OR MUSICAL

• 30 Rock
• Entourage
• Glee
• Modern Family
• The Office

Probably Glee...it's the only musical so has that over the others and is a buzz show. I think that or Modern Family has precedence over the other stalwarts. Where the fuck is Curb Your Enthusiasm?

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES, COMEDY OR MUSICAL

• Toni Collette, United States of Tara
• Courteney Cox, Cougar Town
• Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
• Tina Fey, 30 Rock
• Lea Michele, Glee

I think Falco.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES, COMEDY OR MUSICAL

• Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
• Steve Carell, The Office
• David Duchovny, Californication
• Thomas Jane, Hung
• Matthew Morrison, Glee

Yay, Matt Morrison! I think Baldwin wins.

BEST MINISERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

• Georgia O'Keefe
• Grey Gardens
• Into the Storm
• Little Dorrit
• Taking Chance

Duh, Grey Gardens.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

• Joan Allen, Georgia O'Keefe
• Drew Barrymore, Grey Gardens
• Jessica Lange, Grey Gardens
• Anna Paquin, The Courageous Heart of Irena Sendler
• Sigourney Weaver, Prayers for Bobby

Lange.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

• Kevin Bacon, Taking Chance
• Kenneth Branagh, Wallander: One Step Behind
• Chiewetel Ejiofor, Endgame
• Brendan Gleeson, Into the Storm
• Jeremy Irons, Georgia O'Keefe

Hm! I have no idea. When in doubt, default to acting clout: Probably Irons.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A SERIES, MINISERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

• Jane Adams, Hung
• Rose Byrne, Damages
• Jane Lynch, Glee
• Janet McTeer, Into the Storm
• Chloë Sevigny, Big Love

I love Jane Adams but not that show. It's a shame the women of Modern Family were shut out, and ignoring Jane Krakowski is insanity. But the HAS-TO-WINner is Jane Lynch.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A SERIES, MINISERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

• Michael Emerson, Lost
• Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother
• William Hurt, Damages
• John Lithgow, Dexter
• Jeremy Piven, Entourage

Probably Harris. But it's insane and offensive that Eric Stonestreet and Jesse Tyler Ferguson and Ty Burrell were shut out! In that order.