Image from here

According to an analysis in The New York Times, opponents of yesterday's decision that ruled Proposition 8 unconstitutional may find it "horrendous" and "the first salvo in a major culture war over same-sex marriage and the proper purview of the courts," but the decision was forceful and persuasive. Prof. Andrew Koppelman of Northwestern Law School says:

"If the Supreme Court does not want to uphold same-sex marriage, its job has been made harder by this decision." [Appeals courts] are supposed to take as true facts found by the district court, unless they are clearly erroneous. This opinion shows why district courts matter, even though the Supreme Court has the last word."

The 136-page opinion is fact-heavy and filled with relevant testimony, in stark contrast to the arguments made by those who would continue denying marriage rights to all.

Even if the ideological balance of the Court remains unchanged in the next 18 months (or longer) that it takes for Perry v. Schwarzenegger to reach its view, I feel we have a better than even chance of winning there. And considering how much can change in the next 18 months (or longer), I'd say we have a better than even chance of seeing an ideological shift—Ginsburg may well depart, which would hopefully lead to a replacement that results in ideological stasis, but there are plenty of older conservatives on that Court who could elect to leave for health or personal reasons. Or because God calls them home.

I guess if Scalia is on the Court when this case reaches him, we'll find out just how much of a strict Constitutionalist he is. It's very hard to imagine him handing a victory to gay rights no matter how compelling the logic (though there is more of a chance with him than with ideologue Clarence Thomas, who's not going to disappoint his wife), but there is a shot the case will not only be won, but be won decisively.

I also agree with those pointing to President Obama's water-treading responses to this issue that he, much more than any other Democrat before him, is going to be held accountable for how his stance evolves (or does not evolve) in the near future. Nobody—NOBODY—holds it against former candidate Hillary Clinton that she has yet to update her phony position of being personally against marriage equality, but President Obama's stance, one held so easily by an enormous number of Democrats in office all around the country, is one that is going to mark him as either someone too scared to do the right thing even when the opportunity presented itself or as someone brave enough to take that opportunity and run with it.

I can't say I'm holding out a lot of hope, considering how political he's been in all the ways I wish he wouldn't be, and how politically tone-deaf he's been in all the ways in which I never dreamed he would be. But I do hold out a bit of it, because how can someone be so smart and really be this stupid?