Chop To It The Grooming 

Nov 06 2012
How Will The Cookie Crumble? Comments (3)

Barack-Obama-Mitt-Romney-cookiesEleni's in Manhattan does candidate cookies every cycle

My final predictions for how the U.S. presidential election will shake out:

I'm being conservative because President Obama will probably carry and Colorado (I'm not sure why, but I still think that first debate happening there hurt him), and he could certainly carry Florida or even North Carolina. But this is how I see it.

Voting-new-york-cityMessage I saw after my paper ballot was scanned here in NYC

I'm least confident about New Hampshire and Virginia. (He could lose both on my map and still win.)

I think the president's personal connection to Iowa helps him carry that state.

I think he wins fair and square in Ohio; if for any reason Ohio is called for Romney, I have to say I would be very likely to suspect fraud. The breadth of polling should make it nearly impossible for Romney to prevail there.

I don't truly believe any of the last-minute "expand-the-field" states will go for Romney, including Pennsylvania (which would be the absolute worst one to do so!), Wisconsin, Minnesota or Michigan.

And as for the popular vote, I at one point really thought the South would run up the totals and he'd lose it by a bit. But my final guess is he wins by 2.8 points overall.

Some of the Senate races:

Elizabeth Warren wins. Chris Murphy wins. Bob Kerrey loses. Richard Carmona loses. Joe Donnelly wins. Angus King wins. Jon Tester loses. Heidi Heitkamp loses. Sherrod Brown wins. Bob Casey wins. Tim Kaine wins. Tammy Baldwin wins.

Wish me—and us!—luck.



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