Will Hollywood continue to share the raft with Leo? (GIF via GIPHY)
Here are my predictions — not my personal picks — for what I think will be the Oscar nominees come Monday morning.
When it comes to Best Picture, I'm torn, because it's hard to predict how Hollywood voters will respond to Bombshell. I kind of think they will treat it like Vice, which was nominated. It also scored a SAG nomination, which only offers slots to five casts.
On the other hand, I feel like Charlize Theron — considered a lock for a nomination for that film — may be left out; she has been ignored recently, and the prosthetic nature of her performance could hurt her.
I think Jojo Rabbit and Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood are going to speak to voters most broadly (the Academy adores WWII and films about Hollywood), and I think Parasite will be the film they most admire, so it will also get many nominations. The Irishman will do well due to nostalgia, as it's a vintage Scorsese film that happened to be made in 2019.
I wound up including Joker in Best Picture, but in spite of its accolades and the Academy's male slant, I don't know ... will they realize it's not a superhero flick?
The category in which I foresee the biggest surprises is Best Actress. I keep feeling Alfre Woodard will somehow creep in, as what the hell else does she have to do, other than what she did in Clemency? I also think Awkafina is going to make the cut due to her high profile. I think she will be rewarded as the face of The Farewell.
I'm uncertain that Cynthia Erivo's place for her performance in Harriet is secured, but I'm even less certain that Lupita Nyong'o will be recognized for a horror film, although Us was no Hereditary, so may not have scared off voters.
I remain convinced Adam Sandler is well-liked and will somehow muscle in last-minute for Best Actor for Uncut Gems.
What are you picks? Here are mine:
Best Picture
Bombshell
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
If it goes to 10, but I don't think it will, I would add Ford v Ferrari.
Best Director
Boon Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Alternate: Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Best Actor
Leonardo Di Caprio, Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
Alternate: Robert De Niro, who has been snubbed a lot for The Irishman. (It's the eyebrows.)
Best Actress
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Alfre Woodard, Clemency
Renée Zellweger, Judy
I suppose Charlize Theron for Bombshell is the main one I'm leaving out.
Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Tough category to infiltrate, but if anyone can, it's Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell. (Unpleasant subject matter for Hollywood liberals, though.)
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Song Kang-ho, Parasite
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood
I remain hopeful that Song Kang-ho pulls this off, but I couldn't find a spot for Alan Alda in Marriage Story, and I think his status as a saint might help.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes
Best Original Screenplay
The Farewell
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood
Parasite
Best Foreign Language Film
Atlantics
Honeyland
Les Misérables
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Best Cinematography
The Irishman
1917
Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
I wouldn't be shocked if Portrait of a Lady on Fire wound up scoring here or somewhere else; it was tragically ineligible for Best Foreign Language Film, and perhaps enough voters know of this snub to give it some Cold War-style momentum?
Best Costume Design
Dolemite Is My Name
Downton Abbey
Little Women
Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood
Rocketman
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood
Rocketman
Best Editing
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
1917
Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood
Parasite
Best Production Design
The Irishman
Little Women
1917
Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood
Parasite
Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Best Original Score
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Best Original Song
Aladdin
Frozen II
Harriet
The Lion King (Spirit)
Rocketman
Best Sound Editing
Ad Astra
Avengers: Endgame
Ford v Ferrari
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Best Sound Mixing
Avengers: Endgame
Ford v Ferrari
1917
Rocketman
Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker
Best Documentary Feature
American Factory
Apollo 11
For Sama
Honeyland
One Child Nation
Best Documentary Short
After Maria
Fire in Paradise
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
Stay Close
Walk Run Cha-Cha
Best Animated Feature
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
Best Animated Short
Hair Love
Dcera (Daughter)
Kitbull
The Physics of Sorrow
Sister
Best Live Action Short
Brotherhood
Little Hands
The Neighbors' Window
Refugee
A Sister
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