I am chastened.
I will never again doubt the strength, in politics, of star power, of racism, of assertiveness, of being anti-immigrant, of being anti-abortion, of being anti-LGBTQ. I also will never again doubt the tenacity of the Trump voter, to get out the vote, to lie to pollsters, and to seek what they want without shame. It is awful, but impressive.
I went to bed thinking we were heading into 2016 again, except the polling error was far worse.
This never happens, but things looked ... better ... when I woke up.
Currently, Biden is barely on track to win the Electoral College, and the presidency. It is looking like a 270-268 win, though could go higher if Pennsylvania continues to break toward Joe Biden.
Speaking of which, according to Jen O'Malley Dixon, Biden's campaign manager, Biden's got this:
A 270 win is a win, and it's nice to win it with a massive popular vote win. Guys, more people voted for Joe Biden — that should mean something.
Sadly, the Senate races were disastrous. Lindsay Graham's race polled as tight and he won by 14 points. Other toss-ups went by 8%. We prevailed with Mark Kelly in Arizona, which trended blue, and John Hickenlooper in Colorado, who was a shoo-in. Still some uncertainly, run-offs, etc., but looks like a President Biden will be hampered by a red Senate.
√ Upwards of 27% of the mail-in vote in South Florida never arrived — thanks to Postmaster General Louis De Joy. The state went for Trump early, but by a higher margin that polls indicated. To be fair, it is hardly an outlier in that regard, with states like Ohio swinging something like 8% away from Democrats in the poll of polls.
√ Here is how the USPS did in various areas with returning ballots check out Atlanta! Atlanta is nearly swinging Georgia blue for Biden but not with missing ballots like this:
This is just incredible. In Atlanta, which will go a long way toward determining the outcome of Georgia, USPS failed to deliver a substantial number of mail-in ballots. Thousands and thousands of ballots. https://t.co/iTHHvOqzvr— Liam Martin (@LiamWBZ) November 4, 2020
Various Other Results:
It’s official. We won! It is the honor of a lifetime to be able to serve our community in Washington DC. The counting took longer than expected, but today the @BOENYC certified our victory & I want to say thank you.. pic.twitter.com/j2ygMbQXSA— Ritchie Torres (@RitchieTorres) August 4, 2020
√ Ritchie Torres and Mondaire Jones, both Democrats and New Yorkers, will become the first-ever Black, gay men elected to the House.
√ Jabari Brisport will be the first queer man of color in the New York legislature, in Brooklyn's 25th District.
√ Towleroad has an excellent round-up of many more LGBTQ candidates who will be making history.
√ Hamilton County (Cincinnati) has elected a lesbian sheriff in the form of Democrat Charmaine McGuffey.
√ GLAAD's pre-election poll showed 17% of LGBTQ voters would support Trump, in line with 2018. However, exit polling shows 27% of people CLAIMING to be LGBTQ (important point, considering there is some evidence that Trump voters have been intentionally dishonest in polling). Taken on its face, though, a 10-point jump shows Trump did improve with LGBTQ voters, even though he has successfully stacked courts with anti-LGBTQ judges, imperiled gay marriage and banned trans patriots from serving in the military. The reason the improvement may well be real is other exit polling has shown Trump made inroads (apparently not quite enough) with Black men and Hispanic voters, especially men, so there is a trend of certain demographics overlooking the fact that, policy-wise, Trump is bad for them, instead caring more about the economy. Sobering. I am heartened that the Hornet poll was not right, but 27% is an embarrassment. (Amy Coney Barrett's first SCOTUS case regarding gay rights is today.)
√ Sarah McBride, a Democrat from Delaware, will be the first-ever trans state senator.
√ QAnon conspiracy theorist Lauren Boebert has won a House seat on Colorado.
√ In North Dakota, David Andahl won as a Republican ... even though he died of (checks notes) COVID-19 a month ago. I know this sounds crazy, but this is how you fuckin' do it, people. You are voting for a party, not a person! A win is a win. Not for him, but still. Also, his job-performance expectations will be incredibly low!
√ Nazi buff Madison Cawthorn (he's 25 and now the youngest House member in modern history) has won a House seat in North Carolina, and responded with class: