(Image via Katie Hobbs for Governor)

One of the most-watched races outside the Senate and the House, for governor of Arizona, should be decided by Monday — and to most, the result was decided Sunday night.

With one of the last large vote dumps, Lake won more votes than Hobbs, but not at a rate to keep her realistically in contention to overcome her rival.

At this point, considering the vote that's outstanding, Hobbs should win by upwards of 20,000 votes — more than Biden in 2020. She has been outperforming Biden in counties, while Lake has been underperforming Trump.

I have followed this closely, and something that is inarguable: Republican bean-counter accounts tend to focus on outlandish accusations of cheating, made-up stories about how votes are expected to swing and the changing of near-impossible outcomes into most-probable outcomes. Democratic bean-counters seem to project, early on, whether they're confident (but realize they could lose). When Dems make clear they expect to win, they do.

This happened with Lake/Hobbs multiple times, with Hobbs largely holding back, but appearing upbeat when she came into view, while Lake seemed to delusionally believe she would hit impossible marks and win, all but promising that result.

In other news:

The Dems — once thought to have ZERO chance of holding the House, quickly moved into contention out of nowhere. Now, it would appear Dems are very unlikely to hold the House, but when the GOP clinches that control, it's going to be by such a tiny margin it's likely the Speaker of the House will have a fuck of a time getting anything done. Chaos in the House is coming.

Lauren Boebert probably won, but it could go down to provisional and overseas ballots. Would be nice.

Did you follow the election closely? If so, give this guy a follow.