Will it be her year? (GIF via GIPHY)

The 2023 Oscar nominations are in — and so are the traditional surprises. 

Everything Everywhere All at Once is the clear front-runner to win Best Picture, clocking 11 nominations and possessing groundbreaking and arty cred, as well as being, generally speaking, a crowd-pleaser. It feels like a strong consensus pick.

All Quiet on the Western Front, the German remake, had a surprisingly strong nine nods, as did The Banshees of Inisherin, which was showered with acting nominations.

Here are the nominees (with my notes), and here are my picks for the year ...

Best Picture (my ranking at right)
All Quiet on the Western Front (2)
Avatar: The Way of Water (haven't seen)
The Banshees of Inisherin (6)
Elvis (8)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (7)
The Fabelmans (5)
Tár (3)
Top Gun: Maverick (9)
Triangle of Sadness (1)
Women Talking (4)

I was thinking RRR would slide in, especially since it was not submitted by India for Best International Feature Film consideration. I am surprised the maudlin The Whale sprang a leak here. I think the two that took their spots are Triangle of Sadness and Women Talking. The only film that breaks my heart with its absence, taking into account its realistic chances: Aftersun.

Best Director
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (4)
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (5)
Todd Field, Tár (3)
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (1)

Totally shocked by Östlund's presence. It seems Berger should have been considered — his film had nine nominations!

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett, Tár (1)
Ana de Armas, Blonde (4)
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie (2)
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (5)
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (3)

This had the biggest shockers in the acting field, with seemingly safe Viola Davis and more marginal Danielle Deadwyler making way for Michelle Williams, whose category fraudulence has been hotly debated and Andrea Riseborough, who benefited from a last-second series of high-profile pleas by A-list friends when her film's distributor failed to spend money promoting her. In reality, Riseborough is more than deserving — her performance is a marvel. But so is Deadwyler's — I am shocked she was denied. Davis shocks me, but I'm not dismayed — The Woman King really didn't do it for me, and that film never felt like a serious Oscar contender to me. (In fact, it scored zero nominations.) De Armas is a wonderful Marilyn Monroe in a revolting film, so I'd rather she had been denied, and I thought Williams was miscast, so go figure.

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Austin Butler, Elvis (4)
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (3)
Brendan Fraser, The Whale (5)
Paul Mescal, Aftersun (1)
Bill Nighy, Living (2)

I'm thrilled Mescal was nominated. I had long ago tweeted that the Oscars are pointless if a performance like his doesn't make the cut — and it did! Nighy is superb. The splashier stars here are going to duke it out. My gut is Farrell, an A-lister with a lot of goodwill in a terrific film everyone loves that is a dark comedy but with gravitas, has the edge. But Fraser, who IMO is borderline bad in the borderline terrible The Whale, is the feel-good pic, and Butler — whose performance was okay but mostly the result of lowering his voice — can't be written off, not with how much Oscar loves biopics.

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (haven't seen)
Hong Chau, The Whale (4)
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (2)
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (3)
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

I thought Hsu was about to get shafted, but she was brilliant, as was Condon. That is a tough pair from which to choose. I haven't seen Black Panther, but I am totally unmoved by performances in kiddie superhero movies. Still, most people aren't that way, so this is Bassett's to lose.

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (3)
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (4)
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (5)
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (2)
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

All of them are terrific. This category is solid.

Best Original Screenplay
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inishirin (4)
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once (3)
Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans (5)
Todd Field, Tár (2)
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (1)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell, All Quiet on the Western Front (1)
Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (4)
Kazuo Ishiguro, Living (3)
Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, and Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks, Top Gun: Maverick (5)
Sarah Polley, Women Talking (2)

Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front (1)
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (5)
Elvis (4)
Empire of Light (3)
Tár (2)

Top Gun getting shut out for IMO the only nomination it deserved feels odd. Bardo is a piece of shit.

Best Documentary Feature Film
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny

The only one I've seen — and I'm usually up on docs — is the obvious winner: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed.

Best Animated Feature Film
Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red

I don't like animation (ducks). I loved Marcel, and couldn't get through Pinocchio.

Best International Feature Film
All Quiet on the Western Front (3)
Argentina 1985 (5)
Close (1)
EO (4)
The Quiet Girl (2)

What a great field — and yet they savagely ignored Decision to Leave, a critics' darling. (I liked, but did not love it.) Close was my #1 favorite of the year, and The Quiet Girl was close behind, two sweet films about the brutality of youth and how we move on. All Quiet is, again, absolutely brilliant. EO destroyed me, in a good way. Argentina 1985 is a fine film, but did not grab me.

Best Original Song
“Applause,” Tell It Like a Woman
“Hold My Hand,” Top Gun: Maverick
"Lift Me Up," Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu,” RRR
“This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once

A bunch of garbage ... and clear winner “Naatu Naatu.”

Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick

All Quiet all the way.

Best Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front (2) 
Babylon (4)
The Banshees of Inisherin (3)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)
The Fabelmans (5)

Best Costume Design
Babylon (2)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (haven't seeen)
Elvis (4)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (3)

Mrs. Harris struck me as a TV movie, but it did have the clothes. Babylon was mostly aggressively weird and dull, but looks spectacular.

Best Makeup And Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale

Haven't seen two, but I will say Elvis and The Whale had dreadful makeup.

Best Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front (1)
Avatar: The Way of Water (haven't seen)
Babylon (2)
Elvis (4)
The Fabelmans (3)

Best Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick

Haven't seen the majority here.

Best Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin (3)
Elvis (5)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)
Tár (2)
Top Gun: Maverick (4)

Best Animated Short Film
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

Haven't seen any of them, but those last two ... for the win!

Best Live Action Short
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase

Haven't seen any of them.

Best Documentary Short Film
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate

Haven't seen any of them.